MOORE’S LAW: UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING

The cost for equivalent computing performance halves every 18 months,
OR conversely,
Computational performance at a constant cost doubles every 18 months.
Gordon Moore, cofounder of Intel, observed in 1965 that the number of transistors
per square inch on an integrated circuit had doubled almost every year. Moore
predicted that this trend would continue for some time into the future. He predicted
that the density of electronic components in an integrated circuit will double every
18 months for an indefinite period of time.

In the four decades since Moore’s prediction, the timeframe for this density doubling has been measured consistently in the range of 18 to 24 months, and this trend appears not only to be continuing, but to be tending closer to the 18-month time frame. Since the gain in density is
geometric (it doubles) in a linear time frame, the compounded results over time are
remarkable. The First Law of Techonomics is called the Law of Ubiquitous Computing
because the exponential trends in performance improvement and cost reduction
for electronics at some point makes it economically feasible to put computational
capabilities into virtually every manufactured item, from tennis shoes to
toothbrushes.

Computing capabilities are embedded in almost every conceivable product.
The number of transistors in the latest microprocessors from Intel over the last 30 years. Moore’s Law has been a strong predictor of electronic density throughout this period. Moore’s
Law is modified from a technology law to a techonomic law when additional
technical and economic observations are used. Both speed and cost of an integrated circuit are tied to its packing density.

The primary economic cost to an integrated circuit is the wafer on which the circuit is printed. Cost of these wafers is mostly a function of size, so if the wafers stay at the same size, wafer cost is fixed. The smaller the transistor size, the more transistor elements can fit on the same wafer
size. The result: more product (computational speed) for the same price as transistors
get smaller. That is why Moore’s Law can also be stated as: Computer performance
doubles at the same cost or its cost halves for the same performance every 18 months.
There are several easily understood implications of the First Law of Techonomics
(Moore’s Law Modified). Since the performance of smart electronic devices relentlessly
doubles every 18 months, what was impossible yesterday (due to either size,
cost, speed, power requirements, or intelligence) becomes possible today and commonplace
tomorrow. For example, in 1969, the computer that augmented control of
the Lunar Excursion Module (LEM) that placed men on the moon and returned them
safely to the mother ship had less computational power than the PDA (Personal
Digital Assistant) widely available and affordable today.

Not only was the LEM a little large to carry in your pocket, but it was pricy for the typical consumer.

Over the last 40 years, the implications of Moore’s Law have permeated almost
every consumer product imaginable. According to a page on the Intel website
celebrating the 40th anniversary of Moore’s Law, because of the relentless technological
and economic progress realized by electronic miniaturization, it is now
cheaper to make a transistor than it is to print a single character in a newspaper. It
is little wonder newspapers are becoming economically challenged by electronic
means of information distribution. From smart traffic lights, home lighting controls,
automobile windshield wipers, automated telephone systems, and digital watches,
myriads of products now think for themselves. This massive distribution of imbedded computation has been made possible, not just by technological advance, but by the
economic viability of the technology — the techonomics.

Many new automobiles contain upwards of 50 embedded microprocessors, and the typical American home contains hundreds of them in products and appliances.
Recall Kurzweil’s prediction in The Age of Spiritual Machines: by 2040, a $1,000
PC will hold the knowledge of the entire living human race, and its analytical powers will be enormous.

This is the implication of the progression of Moore’s Law, and it is staggering.